A mere two months in the past when Morgan Rogers found himself on the pitch at Sunderland, looking confused as Unai Emery admonished him for missing a through-ball. During that period, as Villa went six without a win, doubts remained whether Rogers' form were a sign or a cause for the team's more general malaise.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
This weekend, in contrast, the manager's outburst was much more joyous. As the England international swept in his second strike to reinstate his side's advantage, the Spanish tactician tore off his winter coat, opened his arms and bellowed. The team were on their way to a 10th successive win and having failed to win their opening six fixtures, find themselves just three points adrift of table-toppers Arsenal.
Is This Team Genuine Challengers?
That’s a particularly tough question to answer. The historical record, the traditional standing of the club, suggests not. Additionally, their performances haven't been entirely convincing during this run, while the positive results have accumulated.
According to statistical analysis, twice all season has the side posted an expected goals figure notably superior than their opponents. For a club that have just won ten consecutive victories, Villa appear weirdly vulnerable – yet at the moment the tight outcomes are falling their way.
The Winning Formula
The current approach looks like to trade blows with rivals before hoping their star man to bail them out with two clinical strikes. It happened against Leeds, it transpired at West Ham, and it happened versus Manchester United.
The initial strike stemmed from a brilliant finish, curled right inside the post from the corner of the box. The follow-up goal was essentially a slight scruffier version of goal number one as he pounced on a setup by his strike partner.
“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”
Can It Last?
Reason suggests otherwise. During the latest victory, the opposition managed more shots and more shots on target. The team has secured their last eight victories by just one goal. They have allowed goals in all except one of those fixtures.
A statistical correction may well be the biggest rival the club must confront in the near future. Their key man, surely, will not continue to thrashing his shots past despairing goalkeepers week in, week out.
A Case for Belief
Maybe there exists a different scenario in which, rather than luck running out, performances begin to trend towards results. Key players might still return to peak condition.
- The main striker might resume finding the net regularly.
- Jadon Sancho might become the performer he resembled during his peak.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres will eventually regain fitness, strengthening an occasionally vulnerable backline.
This could contain the seeds for a sustained push, but they surely can continue to depend solely on Morgan Rogers.
Relishing the Unlikely
Yet, this was unforeseen. Few believed the team would occupy in the top three for the holidays. And without a doubt back in October, few could imagine Rogers as the year closed would be at the forefront of a title charge and appearing as a vital player for the national team.
The current run must be cherished precisely because it feels so unlikely. When the hero positioned himself before the North End after the match conducting the cheers, he appeared to be loving the experience. As he deserves to. These runs of form are rare in football and ought to be celebrated.
